Unemployment scenario could get worse in 2021

The year 2020 has been about containing the outbreak of COVID-19 with governments across the world dedicating the maximum proportion of their resources and time for the same. The Indian landscape was no different with the pandemic dictating policymaking decisions. There is now great vaccine excitement and the roll-out will be watched with great attention across the world. The Indian government is yet not clear on its stance – will everyone get the vaccine? Who will pay for it? How soon will two-thirds of the population be covered? Approvals are being given now. There is equal amount of scepticism and optimism with regard to the vaccine. However, the virus still looms large and needs to be treated with great caution.

To add to the turmoil that came in terms of the impact on healthcare and mortality, the year also saw some major calamities wreaking devastation across India. Cyclone Amphan and Nisarga, major floods in Assam, gas leaks in Assam and Vishakhapatnam, landslides in Kerala and an air crash also contributed to the mayhem. All in all, enormous challenges and minor hiccups did not present a smooth road for development in India. In Hyderabad, we had rains like haven’t been seen in the last several decades. Floods in 1908 had reportedly killed 15,000 and people still remember accounts they had heard about that great deluge.

On the economic front, GDP shrunk by 23.9% at the end of the first quarter of 2020, the first contraction since 1980. The stringent lockdown cost the Indian economy US$4.5 billion each day during the 21-day lockdown and stifled more than three-fourths of India’s $2.8 trillion economic activities. Estimates suggest the economy will shrink by at least 12 percent for the entire year; that is a loss of at least 18 lakh crores. This means we will continue to see dismal employment, when at least a 100 million in the informal sector have lost their jobs in addition to at least 5 million salaried workers who lost their jobs just in the month of July. While informal workers do find jobs after a while at reduced wages, salaried jobs don’t come back every quickly, if at all they do.

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https://www.siasat.com/unemployment-scene-could-go-be-worse-in-2021-2059649/