Discussing India’s Population Growth: Myths and Realities
Event/Discussion Overview
Date and Time: 22nd May 2024, 4 p.m.
Location: CDPP Office, 3rd Floor, Masab Tank, Hyderabad
Participants
- Prof. Amitabh Kundu
- Other participants from diverse backgrounds
Agenda
- Overview of Thomas Robert Malthus' Theories
- Demographic Changes and Population Growth
- Modern Interpretations of Reduced Population Growth
- Population Trends in India
- High-Income Countries and Fertility Rates
- Factors Influencing Fertility Rates
- Population Projections for India
- Hindu and Muslim Population Dynamics
- Q&A Session
Discussions
1. Overview of Thomas Robert Malthus' Theories
Thomas Robert Malthus proposed that human nature leads to producing children faster than economic growth, causing food production to lag population growth. He suggested that religion could be a method to control population growth. Initially, this view was not widely accepted, as many believed technological progress would resolve food production issues.
2. Demographic Changes and Population Growth
From 1810 to 1890, significant demographic changes and population growth led to overcrowding in cities. However, post-1890, there was a noticeable reduction in population growth, prompting renewed interest in Malthus' theories and exploration of reasons behind this demographic shift.
3. Modern Interpretations of Reduced Population Growth
Several theories emerged to explain reduced population growth:
- Economic Growth and Modernity: Higher economic development leads to lower birth rates.
- Workforce Demands: Increased demand for labour.
- Child Mortality Reduction: Lower child mortality rates result in fewer births.
- Women's Education: Greater emphasis on women's education.
- Old Age Security: Reduced need for children due to better old age security.
4. Population Trends in India
In India, significant demographic changes similar to Malthusian theory were observed only in the 1990s, limited to three states: Kerala, Goa, and Odisha (an outlier). Most other states saw fertility rates decline only by 2010.
5. High-Income Countries and Fertility Rates
Despite high per capita incomes, countries like England and the Netherlands did not experience early reductions in population growth, contrary to expectations.
- Absolute Values and Growth Rates: The trend in fertility must be considered with many factors, with absolute values and growth rate itself not being a good factor to consider since it can be misleading.
- Male to female disparity in income could also be considered a factor in reducing fertility rates. This is seen in England's graph. Another place this can be considered is Kerala with male to female income disparity being lower although women work in less productive areas.
- Predictions: Various demographic projections for India suggest stabilisation of the population at different figures by different years.
6. Population Projections for India
- 2045 Prediction: Stabilisation at 1.53 billion, requiring a current population of 1.04 billion.
- United Nations: World population to stabilise at 10.4 billion, with India at 1.7 billion by 2060.
- Lancet Report: India’s population to stabilise at 1.6 billion by 2048, indicating potential labour shortages mitigated by increased workforce participation by women and minorities.
7. Hindu and Muslim Population Dynamics
- Surjeet Bhalla wrote that Muslims are earning 17% more than Hindus in the Times of India.
- Sir wrote a rebuttal pointing out that Bhalla had erred in his research by including the SC STs with the Hindu population, lowering their income overall. Further, Bhalla had erred in not dividing rural and urban groups.
- He stated that labour market discrimination against Muslims is high.
- Sir pointed out the decadal growth rate of Hindus and Muslims from 1951 to 2011.
- The growth rate of Muslim population was higher than Hindus overall except for 41-61 owing to partition.
- The graph pointed out that until 1991 the growth rate remained stable at 32% and Hindu growth rate remained constant at around 22%.
- After this, a drop is seen. With hindu population growth rate falling from 22.7% to 19.9% and Muslim rate falling from 32.9% to 29.5% and then to 24.6% in just ten years. The fall of 5 percent points in 10 years is a major concern sir opined. The Hindu population only fell by 3 percent.
- Back in nfhs-1 every 100 muslim couples produced almost 400 children while 100 hindu couples produced 300 children.
- The fall has been 198 children for Hindus and 206 for Muslim couples.
- The rate of decline had been sharpest in Muslims, which had not been highlighted.
- A similar decline was noticed in TFR of Hindus and Muslims.
- Thus, there is a trend towards convergence in TFR and population growth.
- He pointed out that it is claimed that hindu population has declined by 8% while muslim population has risen by 43%.
- He calculated the rise of muslim population growth rate ridiculously. That difference of percentage has been taken with its denominator as the smaller percentage, obviously resulting in a higher ‘growth rate’.
- According to this mathematical calculation, the Buddhist population would have risen by 1000%.
8. Key Insights and Opinions
- Sir opined that a fall in Total Fertility Rate could not be explained by a single factor like literacy rate, income levels, etc. but rather a combination of factors.
- Sir opined that one needs to understand the situation across all states AND all social groups (SCs, STs) to understand population trends and that a simple total population figure is misleading.
- Sir felt that if the population were to stabilise early, we should take the dependency ratio as a challenge. We could solve this by
- empowering women employment
- participation of SC/ST communities in skilled labor
- Sir felt the trend of rapid decline in Muslim TFR had not been highlighted.
9. Key insights from Q/A session
Question: Do these figures consider people who migrated out of India?
Answer: No, it only considers people in India and people who just have been away from India for less than 6 months but apart from that it does not. Enrolment for Hindus in 94% and Muslims 85% in primary. Secondary 80% Hindus, 60% Muslims. Hindus 40% enrolment and Muslims 12%.
Muslim women study up till 10th, but Hindu women study lower grades. Life expectancy of girl children below 5 years is lower for Muslim than Hindus although it is still very high. Mortality rates among these girl children are lower especially in the care of families, with this figure becoming much lower after 5 years old. This reduced figure is due to societal pressure.
